July IIP at 6.8%; on a strong recovery path, say experts
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) number for the month of July has come in at 6.8% versus 8.2% month-on-month and 6.4% year-on-year basis. The June IIP figure, which was first reported at 7.8%, has been revised to 8.2%.
Industrial growth in the period of April to June 2009 is at 4.6% versus 5.6%, Y-o-Y.
Commenting on the IIP figure, Gaurav Kapur, Senior Economist, ABN AMRO Bank, said that there had been some destocking as well as some decline in the output index. "But as it gets helped by the favourable base effect in August, we should see the numbers pretty much holding on around in the vicinity of 6%."
He added that he was looking at some kind of recovery in the manufacturing sector, "which hopefully as we get into the second half of the year and as consumption momentum in the economy improves, would gather strength," he said.
Robert Prior-Wandesforde, Senior Asian Economist at HSBC Holdings, said that the IIP number at 6.8% wasn't a huge surprise. "Industrial production is, and continues to be, on the recovery trend and on quite a strong recovery path."
According to Prior-Wandesforde, the fact that the IIP has dipped down a little in July, was not particularly worrying. He feels the trend is what matters and the trend is upwards. "I think will remain very firm in the months and quarters ahead."